Validation of HAZUS Hurricane Model During Ike

FEMA has recently published an independent validation study of wind field, debris estimation, and building damages for Houston, TX of a Level 1 HAZUS-MH analysis for Hurricane IKE. MORE INFO

2010 Huricane Soothsayers ...

The Tropical Meteorology Project at the Colorado State University predicts that the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season is likely to be "above-average" and produce eight hurricanes, four of them major. MORE INFO

Another forecaster, AccuWeather sees a potentially "extreme" hurricane season this year with five hurricanes, two or three of them major, expected to strike the U.S. coast, forming out of an expected 16 to 18 tropical storms, almost all of them in the western Atlantic or Gulf of Mexico. MORE INFO

The NOAA National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center's projection is usually released in late May, before the start of the "official" hurricane season, June 1 - Nov 30th. MORE INFO

NOAA National Hurricane Center

Info on tropical storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific can be found on the NOAA National Hurricane Center Web site,
Click here...

Hurricane Katrina: Why Some People Stayed Behind

Nobody asked the residents who stayed behind during Hurricane Katrina why until recently. Stanford University psychologist Nicole Stephens and her colleagues decided to compare the views of outside observers with the perspectives of the New Orleans residents who actually rode out Katrina. READ MORE

Severe Storm Prediction, Education and Evacuation from Disasters (SSPEED)

SSPEED is a multi-institutional collaboration that aims to address deficiencies in storm prediction, disaster planning and evacuations for communities stretching from New Orleans to Brownsville, Texas. MORE INFO

Anybody know how or if HAZUS-MH fits into the SSPEED efforts?

The New Orleans Hurricane Protection System: Assessing Pre-Katrina Vulnerability and Improving Mitigation and Preparedness

Hurricane Katrina, which struck New Orleans and surrounding areas in August 2005, ranks as one of the nation's most devastating natural disasters. Shortly after the storm, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers established a task force to assess the performance of the levees, floodwalls, and other structures comprising the area's hurricane protection system during Hurricane Katrina. This book provides an independent review of the task force's final draft report and identifies key lessons from the Katrina experience and their implications for future hurricane preparedness and planning in the region.

Now available on the HAZUS.org Bookstore...

2009 Hurricane Season: A Readiness Guide for Critical Infrastructure Partners

June 23, 2009 Webinar

With the onset of the 2009 Hurricane Season, Critical Infrastructure / Key Resources (CIKR) partners are working together to be prepared and ready to quickly respond and restore operations. As part of the Department's Hurricane Preparedness Month, Mr. Chris Anderson, Director, Contingency Planning and Incident Management Division, will discuss coordination processes that are currently in place for the 2009 hurricane season. Mr. Anderson will discuss the most current information on the capabilities the Office of Infrastructure Protection has established to ensure CIKR owners and operators receive timely and accurate responses to requests for information or assistance.

The Webinar will also cover national level CIKR reporting; CIKR capabilities & field level staff support; and the various tools (modeling, simulation, GIS, impact imagery) that are available to enhance critical infrastructure preparedness and response.

Register for the June 29th webinar...

Its Now Offically Hurricane Season ...

June 1st marks the official start of the 2009 Hurricane Season ...

NWS National Hurricane Center...

Go there...

Related ... Authorities are warning that residents of hurricane regions are even more apathetic than last year, READ MORE

Related ... Interview with new FEMA Director Craig Fugate discussing how prepared are we for this year’s hurricane season? Craig Fugate, LISTEN

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Expensive hurricanes insurance leaving consumers exposed

As the 2009 hurricane season arrives, many homeowners are finding insurance is either more expensive, or harder to get as insurance carriers try to limit their exposure in high-risk areas. READ MORE

OPINION: HAZUS.org believes this is an area that HAZUS-MH could be used to develop community wide risk assessments to help better educate the public.

Too often home owner insurance decisions are based on a poor understanding of the risk (a function of potential loss and probability of occurrence) and more on short term economics or fear based on media hype.

It's Hurricane Prepardness Week

Hurricane Preparedness Week is May 24 - 30, 2009 ... MORE INFO

HISTORY
Hurricane Hazards: SURGE
Hurricane Hazards: WIND
Hurricane Hazards: INLAND FLOOD
FORECAST
PREPARE
ACT


NOAA 2009 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook, Issued; 21 May 2009: MORE INFO

Tropical Meteorology Project Extended Range Forecast of Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Activity and U.S. Landfall Strike Probability for 2009; 7 April 2009: MORE INFO

HAZUS in the news ... Scientists model local impacts on towns and tidal environments

HAZUS-MH software models indicate that a category 3 hurricane, like the 1938's Long Island Express that hit 70 years ago, could cause $160 billion worth of property damage in Long Island. Scientists are considering how climate change might exacerbate this. READ MORE

The New Orleans Hurricane Protection System: Assessing Pre-Katrina Vulnerability and Improving Mitigation and Preparedness

The report is the fifth and final one in the series to provide recommendations to the Interagency Performance Evaluation Task Force (IPET), formed by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers to examine why New Orleans' hurricane-protection system failed during Hurricane Katrina and how it can be strengthened.

> Report Summary (.pdf)
> Report in Brief (.pdf)
> Report info on the National Academies web site ...

Colorado State University forecasters now predict average hurricane season

Hurricane experts at the Colorado State University Tropical Meteorology Project have scaled back their prediction for the Atlantic and now say this will be an average season with 12 named storms (down from 14 storms), including six hurricanes. They say two of them could be major. The estimate reduction is based on a developing El Nino condition which tends to reduce Atlantic hurricane activity. MORE INFO
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Hurricane Preparedness Week - 2009

Hurricane Preparedness Week during 2009 will be held May 24th through May 30th.

The goal of the NOAA Hurricane Preparedness Web site is to inform the public about the hurricane hazards and provide knowledge which can be used to take ACTION. This information can be used to save lives at work, home, while on the road, or on the water. MORE INFO

If your city or region is using HAZUS-MH to help get the word out during Hurricane Preparedness Week please let HAZUS.org know so that we can acknowledge / document your efforts...

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Texas lawmakers issue report on Hurricane Ike, disaster preparedness

In a recent report released by the Texas House of Representatives Select Committee on Hurricane Ike Devastation state lawmakers laid out plans to better prepare the state for the aftermath of a major hurricane. Spurred into action by Hurricane Ike’s aftermath, lawmakers assessed the damage and made plans for the future. READ MORE

DOWNLOAD REPORT (.pdf / ~13MB)

HAZUS.org gave this report a quick look ... we saw no mention of how HAZUS-MH can be used for planning, mitigation, response or response ... :-(

Atlantic Hurricane Season Sets Records

November 30, 2008 marked the "official" end of the 2008 Atlantic hurricane season. NOAA reports that the season produced a record number of consecutive storms to strike the United States and ranks as one of the more active seasons in the 64 years since comprehensive records began. READ MORE

Great New England Hurricane of 1938

On the 70th anniversary of the "Great New England Hurricane of 1938" Southampton, NY and Suffolk County have implemented a major public awareness campaign.

Suffolk County Emergency Services Commissioner Joseph Williams said the county relies heavily on the HAZUS-MH projections for developing models to train response personnel. “We use this like a Bible,” Mr. Williams said. “We’re constantly preparing for an event like this.”

To read an article in the East Hampton Press, click here...

To download the Southampton 2008 Hurricane Guide, click here...

Media reporting of HAZUS-MH damage estimates ...

HAZUS.org is getting calls and emails from media sources asking about HAZUS-MH generated damage estimates for Hurricane IKE.

HAZUS.org cautions that HAZUS-MH hurricane loss and damage estimates can vary dramatically depending on the accuracy of the input data and the experience of the operator. HAZUS-MH is a sophisticated software system that is intended to be used in the disaster management community.

The following is taken from the FEMA HAZUS web site...

HAZUS-MH loss estimates can include:

• Physical damage to residential and commercial buildings, schools, critical facilities, and infrastructure;
  
• Economic loss, including lost jobs, business interruptions, repair and reconstruction costs; and
  
• Social impacts, including estimates of shelter requirements, displaced households, and population exposed to scenario floods, earthquakes and hurricanes.

The HAZUS-MH MR3 Hurricane Wind Model allows users in the Atlantic and Gulf Coast regions and Hawaii to estimate hurricane winds and potential damage and loss to residential, commercial, and industrial buildings. It also estimates direct economic loss, post-storm shelter needs, and building and tree debris quantities and allows assessment of specific structural changes to buildings to strengthen them for mitigation. The model has the capability to define hurricane scenarios using National Weather Service forecasts/advisories and the software is optimized for rapid loss assessment. New MR3 features for the Hurricane Model include mitigation analysis options for all of the building classes and thousands of new damage and loss functions in the database. Tree debris can be estimated by weight or volume likely to be collected and disposed of using public funds. An "Automatic Outputs" tool added to the Hurricane Analysis Options dialog allows users to specify a standard set of results that will be automatically generated after each scenario or probabilistic analysis. A new rapid loss feature has been added that generates a range of potential damage and loss estimates for a given hurricane forecast that are included in the rapid loss summary report. Details about the Hurricane Wind Model.

IKE

For the latest update on Hurricane IKE and the current series of Gulf and Atlantic storms go to the NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center web page, click here...*

The HAZUS-MH Hurricane Model allows users to estimate the economic and social losses from hurricane winds. The information provided by the model can be used by state and local officials in evaluating, planning for, and mitigating the effects of hurricane winds. For more info on the HAZUS-MH Hurricane Model, click here...

A CNN article reports that HAZUS-MH estimates that Hurricane IKE will cause $11.8 billion in damage, including $10 billion in property damage. HAZUS.org has no information as to the source of these estimates or who performed the HAZUS-MH runs that CNN is quoting. Readers are cautioned that results from HAZUS-MH simulations can vary dramatrically depending on the accuracy of input data.

Other resources ...
Texas Governor's Division of Emergency Management
FEMA Region VI
FEMA
Texas HAZUS User Group - TXHUG
HURRTRAK
HurricaneMapping.com

Read more about the September 8, 1900 Galveston Hurricane ...
CNN Continental Remembrance
The 1900 Storm


* NOTE: HAZUS.org should not be used for time critical disaster information. Information posted on HAZUS.org is intended to support the HAZUS user community prior to, during and after disasters.

Tropical Storm Fay

Lee County, FL reports on HAZUS-MH estimates for Tropical Storm Fay

As Tropical Storm Fay rumbled away from Lee County on Tuesday afternoon toward central Florida, the Lee county Emergency Operation Center utilized HAZUS-MH to estimate that the storm left a $3.3 million total economic loss in its wake.

To read the complete article in the Cape Coral Daily Breeze, click here...


Broward County's Perspective on the use of Geospatial Technology during Tropical Storm Fay

Scott Burton the GIS Manager for the Broward County Sheriff's Department posted a good discussion of how the Broward Sheriff's Office used HurrTRAK and Hurrevac for tracking and analyzing wind probability and wind forcast estimation. Scott gave HAZUS.org premission to post his discussion here. To see a copy of the discussion, (.pdf) click here...

Florida Officials See Added Hurricane Threat: Not Enough Fear

COMPLACENCY!
Florida’s faltering economy and a recent scarcity of major storms have led to what emergency management officials now describe as a dangerous level of complacency. To read more, click here...

UPDATE - Tropical Storm FAY
To view the latest info about Tropical Storm FAY go to the National Hurricane Center, click here...

Useful links:
Florida HAZUS User Group ...
Florida Division of Emergency Management
FEMA REgion IV